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Big picture investing

Written by Michael Beech on November 21st, 2018.      0 comments

When it comes to investing it’s essential to always look at the big picture

We are now 10 years on from the Global Financial Crisis and it seems timely to use this as a reference for observing the importance of long-term investing and not getting caught up in short-term events.

Especially as we are currently experiencing a pullback in global sharemarkets.

The GFC is widely considered by economists to have been the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. What began as a breakdown in the US subprime mortgage market morphed into a series of credit shocks, bank crashes and a deep recession in much of the developed world.

The climax of the crisis was the collapse of US investment bank Lehman Brothers in September 2008, triggering a bailout of the banking system and extraordinary fiscal and monetary stimulus by governments and central banks. For investors, it was clearly an anxious time. Global equity markets plunged by 40% or more.

By late 2008 politicians and the public were asking why economists and bankers hadn’t seen the crisis coming.

At the World Economic Forum in the Swiss town of Davos in early 2009, the most popular session was one in which a panel of economic experts, many of whom had not predicted the crisis in the first place, lined up to provide their analysis of why the crisis had occurred and what would most likely happen next.

In terms of economic analysis, there clearly was a spectrum of opinion.

Some blamed lax regulations; others too much regulation. Many cited excessive debt, irresponsible lending, complex financial products, compromised ratings agencies, an over-reliance on mathematical models or just plain old greed.

But aside from a temporary seizure in short-term money markets, where banks lend to each other, global share and bond markets performed as you would expect at a time of heightened uncertainty. Prices adjusted lower as investors demanded a higher expected return for the risk of investing.

In mid-March 2009, sentiment started to turn.

By the end of that year, the Australian benchmark S&P/ASX 300 Index had risen 37.6%, recovering just as dramatically from the near 39% plunge it had suffered the previous year. The New Zealand market rebounded by more than 19% after a near 34% decline in 2008.

By the end of 2017, the Australian index had delivered an annualised return of 4.0% even to someone who had begun investing just before the crisis began. Using a global balanced strategy of 60% equity and 40% fixed interest, the return was 5.2%. By the end of the same period, an investor who had begun investing in the New Zealand market at the start of 2008 would still have experienced a 7.6% annualised return by the end of 2017. Using the same global balanced strategy, the New Zealand dollar return was 5.4% (see chart below for annualised returns from NZ and Australian markets).

1118 big picture investing

The lessons from this experience are familiar. Emotions are hard to keep in check during a crisis.

There can be an overwhelming compulsion among investors to “do something”. But, as it turned out, those who stayed disciplined within the asset allocation designed for them have done better than many people who capitulated and went to cash in 2008−2009.

The arguments over the causes and consequences of the GFC will go on and on. But as investors, there’s much to be said for focusing on what we can control.

Timing the market is tough, as is basing an investment strategy on economic or market forecasts. But we can do ourselves a favour, both materially and emotionally, by accepting that volatility is a normal part of investing and by sticking to a well-thought-out long-term investment plan agreed upon in less stressful times. There is a lot to be said for stepping back and looking at the big picture.

Michael Beech CFA is an experienced investment specialist and is responsible for providing investment advice as well as managing the investment portfolios for many of Alliott NZ's clients. Click here to read more or call Alliotts in Auckland today on 09 520 9200.
 

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